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Equities
June 11, 2023

Value in focus, assuming leadership in US and potential catalyst to boost Europe

Value in focus, assuming leadership in US and potential catalyst to boost Europe

Summary: US Equities unequivocal bullishness continues but there is continuing evolution of the switch of leadership between Tech and Value. S&P index has circa +3% upside to the top resistance which is the monthly band @ 4421 

The tech heavy Nasdaq 100 has +1.85% upside to the top of the Daily Resistance @ 14800 with Q Scores very strong (+8 Daily and Maximum Score +10 Weekly)

Note the two notable Weekly Q Signals in tech which did confirm were Microsoft and Alphabet. 

Nasdaq chart shows the market stretched outside the top of the Weekly trading bands - June 11th 2023 (15:00 (IST)
Global Equity Sector Heatmap shows technology sectors easing despite very positive background for global equities - June 11th 2023 (15:00 IST)
Alphabet Weekly Negative Q Signal at the top of the band - June 11th 2023 (15:00 IST)

Value (VLUE ETF) is the most interesting at this juncture with potential +11% upside to the top of the bands. Value ETF is fractionally below a crucial resistance level which needs to be overcome to advance. This is the double resistance of the top of the Daily Resistance and the Monthly Mean which are effectively the same level and +0.3% above here.

S&P Value Factor ETF drives the strength of the US Rally - June 11th 2023 (15:00 IST)
Value needs to continue to trade above the Weekly Mean - June 11th 2023 (15:00 IST)
Value Sectors in Opportunity Quadrant taking on leadership of market performance - June 11th 2023 (15:00 IST)

European Equities have thus far failed to reverse the weekly negative signal of May 26h.  The Insight Blog post published on June 1 was triggered by that negative reversal and  increasing negativity of the Daily Scores across Indices and Sectors. 

Stoxx 600 Weekly Chart shows the index failed to break above the resistance level (463) - June 11th 2023 (15:00 IST)
Stoxx 600 Positive Daily Reversal not sufficient yet to turn scores positive - June 11th 2023 (15:00 IST)

The set up now is genuinely fascinating with a crunch decision point at hand.

Firstly, the Daily Shorter term scores have been improving but remain neutral to mildly negative with a -1 score. The Daily has closed right on the Centre mean line (460) and must trade above this level to begin to drive the scores into positive territory.

Secondly, the Weekly Scores are positive +4 but have eased from +6. The Crucial Resistance level is the Weekly Mean line which is at 463. The Index must break above this this weakening mean line to begin to reverse the cautious stance which continues.

Sector analysis shows the strengthening of the scores in European Value Sectors notably Basic Resources, Banks, Real Estate, Media, Energy, Autos and Utilities.

Value Sectors with strong Daily Scores provide potential catalyst to turn Europe Positive - June 11th 2023 (15:00 IST)

The Basic Resources Metals and Mining idea continues to evolve with positive moves in the Precious Metals and the miners and Anglo American Plc.

Other Asset classes:

FX - US dollar scores easing continuing the trend reported on May 30th.

Fixed Income - Mixed picture with Yields Scores in the 2 and 5 year area falling while the US and UK 10 year Yield scores continue to be positive.

Disclaimer: All opinions are personal and do not represent a recommendation to buy or sell any security mentioned.

Liam Boggan

CEO/ Head of Research

30 years track record as Head of Equity Sales and Equity Research for top tier international institutions.

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